Forecasting & Algorithmic Trading

Solar PV Generation Forecasting

Machine Learning algorithms used include:

  • Support Vector Machines
  • Neural Networks
  • Weather Forecast Combiner

Input data:

  • Historical generation
  • Sunrise and sunset times
  • Solar elevation and azimuth
  • Irradiance and cloud cover
  • Temperature and other weather variables

Value returned:

  • Minimisation of grid imbalance charges
  • Driving of plant efficiency through operations dashboards
  • Enhanced real-time manegament information

Typical Performance

  • ~ 4 % NMAPE

Wind Generation Forecasting

Machine Learning algorithms used include:

  • Logistic Regression
  • Neural Networks
  • Gradient boosted decision trees
  • Weather Forecast Combiner

Input data:

  • Historical generation
  • Wind turbine power curve
  • Wind speed and direction at hub height
  • Temperature and other weather variables

Value returned:

  • Minimisation of grid imbalance charges
  • Driving of plant efficiency through operations dashboards
  • Enhanced real-time manegament information

Typical Performance

  • 10-14 % NMAPE

Grid Load Forecasting

Machine Learning algorithms used include:

  • Gradient boosted decision trees
  • Random Decision Forests
  • Weather Forecast Combiner

Input data:

  • Historical grid load
  • Temperature, humidity and other weather variables
  • Seasonality

Value returned:

  • Feeder-level forecasting and analytics
  • Inputs for optimisation of peak power
  • Enhanced real-time management and information

Typical Performance

  • +/- 3 % MAPE

Algorithmic Trading

Machine Learning algorithms used include:

  • Gradient boosted decision trees
  • Support Vector Machines
  • Neural Networks

Input data:

  • Market Price
  • Daily volume
  • Auction volume and cover ratio
  • Trend and volatility indicators
  • Power market derivatives
  • Gas, oil and coal prices

Value returned:

  • Automatic position sizing
  • Alerts on market direction reversals
  • Trade execution capabilities

Typical Performance

  • Consistent +10 % month-on-month returns